Betting markets are sending a stark warning to crypto bulls: bitcoin has already peaked this year.

Crypto enthusiasts may still be riding high on the token's recent surge, but betting markets indicate that the apex cryptocurrency has reached its peak and is now poised for a decline. According to Polymarket, a platform with over $5 million in trading volume, there are only 61% odds that bitcoin will reach $110,000 by the end of 2025 – barely above its all-time high of around $109,000 set in January.

Beyond that, confidence tapers off dramatically. The chances of bitcoin reaching $150,000 or $200,000 this year are a mere 29% and 14%, respectively. In contrast, the majority of Polymarket speculators see bitcoin dipping to around $70,000 – a level it reached in October last year.

Those betting on the Kalshi exchange are even gloomier, predicting the token could bottom out at around $64,000, its lowest level since last October. The pessimism isn't limited to bitcoin alone; Polymarket bettors also see ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, hitting $1,500 this year – about 24% lower than its current price.

So, what's behind this bearish sentiment? Enthusiasm for bitcoin has fallen dramatically since it surged to an all-time high of $109,026 in January. Economic concerns, such as recession talk and stubborn inflation, have triggered a correction in digital assets. Bitcoin plunged below $80,000 last week, while the CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped into "extreme fear" territory.

Other factors, such as a major crypto hack and chaos in memecoins, have also contributed to the downturn. However, not everyone shares this bearish view. Bernstein analysts recently wrote that "we are in a new era" for bitcoin and predict it will reach $200,000 – a forecast shared by other industry experts, including Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick and 21Shares strategists.

Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick predicts lower interest rates will increase crypto liquidity and boost bitcoin to $150,000. Meanwhile, Strategy founder and bitcoin evangelist Michael Saylor is even more bullish, calling for a $444,000 year-end price for the token.

"To shake long-term conviction, you'd need more than short-term price action; you'd need real structural setbacks," said Mike Cahill, CEO of Douro Labs. "So far, none of that has happened." Despite the pessimism, concerned crypto investors should keep an eye on upcoming inflation data to determine when momentum will return.

As we head into the final stretch of 2025, it remains to be seen whether bitcoin will indeed reach its predicted highs or succumb to the bearish sentiment. One thing is certain – the betting markets are telling a very different story from what crypto bulls might expect.

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