Satya Nadella Argues AI's Success Should Be Measured by Economic Growth, Not AGI

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has weighed in on the debate surrounding artificial intelligence (AI), arguing that its true value lies not in achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI), but rather in its impact on economic growth. In an appearance on podcaster Dwarkesh Patel's YouTube show, Nadella emphasized that AI's success should be measured by its ability to boost a country's gross domestic product, rather than mere progress towards AGI.

"Us self-claiming some AGI milestone, that's just nonsensical benchmark hacking," the chief executive said. "We need to have an industrial revolution type of growth, not just 10 percent, seven percent for the developed world. Inflation adjusted, growing at five percent, that's the real marker." Nadella suggested that growth hasn't eventuated because it's going to take time before folks understand how to use AI effectively, assuming they find a use for it.

"Just imagine how a multinational corporation like us did forecasts pre-PC, and email, and spreadsheets. Faxes went around, somebody then got those faxes and then did an inter-office memo that then went around, and people entered numbers, and then ultimately a forecast came out maybe just in time for the next quarter," Nadella explained. "Then somebody said: 'Hey, I'm just going to take an Excel spreadsheet, put it in an email, send it around, people will go edit it, and I'll have a forecast.' The entire forecasting business process changed because the work artifact and the workflow changed. That is what needs to happen with AI being introduced into knowledge work," he said.

"Don't conflate knowledge worker with knowledge work," he said. "The knowledge work of today could probably be automated, [but] who said my life's goal is to triage my email?" Instead, he argues AI agents will allow workers to focus on higher-value tasks.

Whether this is actually how it'll play out, or whether enterprises will take this as an opportunity to reduce costs by cutting staff remains to be seen. Nadella's comments highlight the importance of understanding the true value and potential impact of AI on businesses and society at large.

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