Trump's Golden Dome Defence Project Could Spur a Space Arms Race

US President Donald Trump has proposed a defence project, called the Golden Dome, to intercept any incoming hypersonic, ballistic and advanced cruise missiles that threaten the country.

"Once fully constructed, the Golden Dome will be capable of intercepting missiles even if they are launched from other sides of the world and even if they are launched from space," said Trump during the White House announcement on May 20. However, some experts warn that such a thorough interception system may not be possible.

The project's name is inspired by Israel's Iron Dome system, which uses ground-based missiles to intercept incoming rockets and artillery fired from relatively short distances. But the Golden Dome would need to defend a far larger area – the land mass of the contiguous US alone is more than 350 times the size of Israel – from a wider variety of sophisticated missiles.

According to Trump and his officials, the system should be able to counter ballistic missiles that could be launched from the other side of the world, advanced cruise missiles that fly on flatter trajectories at lower altitudes and hypersonic missiles that can fly and manoeuvre at speeds exceeding Mach 5, five times the speed of sound.

These missiles can carry either nuclear warheads or conventional explosive warheads. To detect and intercept these threats, the Golden Dome will use both "space-based sensors and air and missile defense," US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said in a statement.

How Will the Golden Dome Work?

Missile defence experts say that the system's effectiveness depends on how quickly it can be deployed. "The three-year timeline is aggressive – this initiative is likely to span at least a decade, if not more," says Patrycja Bazylczyk at the Center for Strategic & International Studies.

"Significant progress is feasible in the near term, including fielding new interceptors, over-the-horizon radars, space-based sensors and technology demonstrations," she adds. However, experts point out that launching a large constellation of satellites to support the system would require significant resources and time.

Could Golden Dome Make the US Safer?

There is already an ongoing arms race between the US, China and Russia, with all three countries modernizing and expanding their nuclear arsenals, as well as developing space-based systems to support their militaries. If the Golden Dome system can improve US air and missile defences, it could "change the strategic calculus" by reducing the confidence of any missile-armed adversary, deterring them from launching attacks in the first place," says Bazylczyk.

However, experts also warn that the Golden Dome has the "potential to contribute to instability" by "signalling to your nuclear adversaries that you simply don’t trust them." China's foreign ministry responded to Trump's announcement by saying the Golden Dome carries "strong offensive implications" and raises the risks of an arms race in space.

Counter Measures

China and Russia might try to "destroy or disable US satellites," says missile defence expert Patrycja Bazylczyk. Both countries already have missiles capable of shooting down satellites, and they could also try to electronically jam or hack US satellite systems, he says.

In February 2024, the US government warned that Russia had plans to launch a space weapon capable of disabling or destroying satellites, possibly using a nuclear explosion. These countries could also bulk up their missile arsenals and possibly develop more manoeuvable weapons that also use decoys, according to Bazylczyk.

Missile defence expert Patrycja Bazylczyk warns that "I think you’d be very hard-pressed to find a launch cadence that could support a large constellation going up in just three years." She adds that the system's development timeline is ambitious, but it may be difficult to achieve.

Conclusion

The Golden Dome defence project has sparked concerns about the potential risks of an arms race in space. While the system could improve US air and missile defences, its development timeline and potential impact on international relations remain uncertain.

As the US, China and Russia continue to modernize their nuclear arsenals and develop space-based systems, experts will be watching closely to see how the Golden Dome project unfolds.