The Coming Golden Age of Crime

According to Dr. Robert Muggah, Ph.D., a principal at the SecDev Group and co-founder of the Igarapé Institute, organized crime is entering a new golden age. In an interview on LinkedIn, Dr. Muggah shared his thoughts on his latest piece for Foreign Policy, where he explores the breathtaking sophistication, speed, and scale of today's criminal networks.

Globalization has accelerated the spread of organized crime, but digital transformation is taking it to the next level. With intensifying geopolitical uncertainty and tech acceleration, there are good reasons to believe that organized crime will intensify in the coming years. Dr. Muggah co-authored the piece with Misha Glenny, author of McMafia: Seriously Organized Crime.

The authors consider the ways in which organized crime is infiltrating democratic institutions, and how weakening checks and balances are corroding the anti-crime and corruption measures. For instance, President Trump recently ordered the U.S. Justice Department to halt the enforcement of a U.S. anti-corruption law that bars Americans from bribing foreign officials, ostensibly to promote U.S. competitiveness. He also pardoned Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the Silk Road, a website that trafficked in drugs, laundered money, and hacking-for-hire.

Emerging Technologies: A Gift to Criminals

Emerging technologies threaten to further boost organized crime in the coming years. AI-powered hacking operations and untraceable cryptocurrencies are now a staple of money laundering and ransomware schemes. Financial companies and healthcare providers around the world are growing increasingly concerned about deepfakes enabling identity fraud on an industrial scale, rendering traditional verification systems obsolete.

The transition to a digital-first economy is a gift to criminals. In recent decades, the threat from transnational organized crime has climbed steadily up most countries' risk rankings, while the rise of hacking and ransomware has brought home to corporations that this issue is not going away anytime soon.

A Battle That's Still Being Fought

Yes, governments are taking steps by means of tougher laws, more financial sanctions, and expanded police operations. Even so, law enforcement agencies engaged in the battle against organized crime are still woefully under-resourced. Most of their efforts are domestically focused, with consistent information sharing and cross-border operations still rare.

So long as corruption and underlying conditions are unresolved, law enforcement will fall short. The article comes in the wake of our Munich Security Conference event on transnational organized crime held with UNODC and Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime, and with partnership with INTERPOL and Europol and credit to Robert Bosch Stiftung and Robert Bosch Academy.

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